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Weekly News Briefing #1

Ukraine 

As we entered the eighth week of the Russian war on Ukraine, Russia, after it failed to capture Kyiv and hence withdrew from its outskirts, started its awaited offensive in the eastern region of Ukraine, Donbas. According to a Russian general, the aim is to seize all of southern and eastern Ukraine. 

On Tuesday, a Ukrainian commander from Mariupol, the southern-eastern port city still under siege, released a video stating that they will not lay down their weapons and surrender. However, he also said they were outnumbered by Russian forces and did not know how long they could hold the city. He also called for humanitarian corridors to evacuate women and children who are still sheltering in the city that became notorious for the news of the population facing a humanitarian crisis, being cut off from water and electricity due to the Russian siege. 

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Finland 

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland, which shares a 1,340 km long border with the Russian Federation, is now seriously considering giving up its long-standing tradition of neutrality in return for a NATO membership. 

As of April 2022, more than 60% of its population are in favour of joining the military alliance, despite Russian threats about “serious political and military consequences”, also including “retaliatory measures”, in case Finland were to join NATO.

Together with Finland, also neutral Sweden contemplates joining the military alliance and is now facing the same threats from Russia. 

France

After the first round of the French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and his opponent, populist far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, came forward as finalists. The second round will be held on April 24, 2022.
Want to know more about the first round of France’s presidential election? See Politico’s five takeaways here.

On Wednesday, April 20th, Le Pen and Macron had a final televised debate ahead of Sunday’s election. During the discussion, Macron accused Le Pen of being in the pocket of Russia, alluding to her close relationship with Putin.

Although polling suggests a second presidential term for Macron, the result is expected to be closer than five years ago: Yet, while a Le Pen success in the elections is unlikely, it is still not impossible. In the (unlikely) event of a Le Pen victory, her presidency would be another stress test for the European Union, among other stressors, such as the war in Ukraine, the rule of law breaches of Hungary’s newly re-elected prime minister Viktor Orbán and his various quarrels with Brussels. 

As election day comes around, all signs point toward a Macron victory. He would be the first president in decades to win a second consecutive term.

In other news  

Shanghai Lockdown: In an effort to stop another wave of Covid, Chinese authorities impose extreme measures on the population in Shanghai.

Turkey launched a new offensive against Kurdish fighters of the PKK in Iraq on Monday.

On Wednesday, Russia test-launched a new intercontinental missile, which the West perceived as a warning. 

 

That’s it for this week! Thank you for reading, and we hope you enjoyed this newsletter. 

Jair Bolsonaro – Person of the year in organized crime and corruption?

The nomination of the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for the 2020 corrupt person of the year award is questionable. Other prominent but controversial political leaders such as Recep Erdogan, Xi Jinping, and Alexander Lukashenko certainly were better candidates and could very well be given the infamous award.

Putin’s Basilisk

In 2017, Putin stated that the one who became the leader in AI would be the ruler of the world, adding that it would be undesirable if someone obtained a monopolist position and that Russia would share its discoveries with the rest of the world. It was likely his way of affirming dominance while letting the world know that Russia is ready to expand its intellectual boundaries. Putin even tried monopolizing the crypto market: when the central bank called for a ban on cryptocurrencies, Putin was against this decision. During a call on January 26, a month before invading Ukraine, Putin stated the potential and advantages Russia has in this field. This could have been a first red flag: If Kremlin was already planning an all-out war, they were likely expecting sanctions, hence, giving alternate ways of securing wealth a thought.

Viktor Orbán’s racist rhetoric and his propagation of the “great replacement theory”

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán has been known for his racist sentiments for years. However, his most recent remarks during a speech in Băile Tușnad, a town in Romania where Hungarian minorities live, nevertheless sparked outrage due to their outright racist nature. 

Presidential Delegates: The Politicization of Intelligence and Political Appointees

The politicization of intelligence products is a recurring issue that can have extreme effects on how foreign policy is conducted, how military operations and orders of battle are planned, and how intelligence is presented to policymakers. This politicization can clearly have an effect on intelligence and how it is presented to policymakers and the public. One of the most contested and interesting examples of the politicization of intelligence was in the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War.

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