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Weekly News Briefing #1

Ukraine 

As we entered the eighth week of the Russian war on Ukraine, Russia, after it failed to capture Kyiv and hence withdrew from its outskirts, started its awaited offensive in the eastern region of Ukraine, Donbas. According to a Russian general, the aim is to seize all of southern and eastern Ukraine. 

On Tuesday, a Ukrainian commander from Mariupol, the southern-eastern port city still under siege, released a video stating that they will not lay down their weapons and surrender. However, he also said they were outnumbered by Russian forces and did not know how long they could hold the city. He also called for humanitarian corridors to evacuate women and children who are still sheltering in the city that became notorious for the news of the population facing a humanitarian crisis, being cut off from water and electricity due to the Russian siege. 

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Finland 

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland, which shares a 1,340 km long border with the Russian Federation, is now seriously considering giving up its long-standing tradition of neutrality in return for a NATO membership. 

As of April 2022, more than 60% of its population are in favour of joining the military alliance, despite Russian threats about “serious political and military consequences”, also including “retaliatory measures”, in case Finland were to join NATO.

Together with Finland, also neutral Sweden contemplates joining the military alliance and is now facing the same threats from Russia. 

France

After the first round of the French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and his opponent, populist far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, came forward as finalists. The second round will be held on April 24, 2022.
Want to know more about the first round of France’s presidential election? See Politico’s five takeaways here.

On Wednesday, April 20th, Le Pen and Macron had a final televised debate ahead of Sunday’s election. During the discussion, Macron accused Le Pen of being in the pocket of Russia, alluding to her close relationship with Putin.

Although polling suggests a second presidential term for Macron, the result is expected to be closer than five years ago: Yet, while a Le Pen success in the elections is unlikely, it is still not impossible. In the (unlikely) event of a Le Pen victory, her presidency would be another stress test for the European Union, among other stressors, such as the war in Ukraine, the rule of law breaches of Hungary’s newly re-elected prime minister Viktor Orbán and his various quarrels with Brussels. 

As election day comes around, all signs point toward a Macron victory. He would be the first president in decades to win a second consecutive term.

In other news  

Shanghai Lockdown: In an effort to stop another wave of Covid, Chinese authorities impose extreme measures on the population in Shanghai.

Turkey launched a new offensive against Kurdish fighters of the PKK in Iraq on Monday.

On Wednesday, Russia test-launched a new intercontinental missile, which the West perceived as a warning. 

 

That’s it for this week! Thank you for reading, and we hope you enjoyed this newsletter. 

The Lasso of Truth: The American National Security Workforce and the Polygraph

Polygraphs are an incredibly popular tool. They are used in criminal and civil cases, by the prosecution and defense alike, to determine the credibility of sources, defendants, and suspects. However, polygraphs are incredibly problematic. As has been shown by various scientific reports and assessments, they have zero scientific basis, are far too open to individual bias and partial interpretation, and incredibly unreliable. Yet they are in use by nearly every federal law enforcement agency for employment and investigative purposes and are utilized by the courts in certain circumstances. My own view on polygraphs is rather negative, having personally researched the issue and been the subject of such an exam for employment purposes.

Has there been a diminishing of the doctrine of Roe v Wade in US law?

Roe v Wade declared state interference with a woman’s right to abortion to be unconstitutional by virtue of the 14th Amendment, seemingly establishing an unfettered right to abortion in the USA. However, while liberals welcomed the change, conservative action was and continues to be sought to reverse the Supreme Court’s judgment. Since the decision, abortion rights have been narrowed by way of case law and law reform. But, to what extent has there been a diminishing of Roe’s doctrine?

The Arab Uprisings: Causes, course and consequences

2010/2011 mark the years of the so-called Arab Uprisings, which describe the series of civic, political upheavals and demonstrations that erupted in several countries of the MENA region. The protest that shook the Arab world had widespread consequences for the region - in some countries leading to civil wars that evolved into proxy wars between global powers, leaving people displaced, wounded or dead - leading to Europe's biggest "refugee crisis" in decades. The uprisings started with the hope to achieve stable democracies and shake off authoritarian, corrupt leaders - a goal which has only in Tunisia, if at all, been reached. It remains questionable how long the conflicts will continue and whether peace can be achieved and stable democracies built anytime soon.

Germany and the sovereign debt crisis: How Angela Merkel’s initial reluctance towards Greece turned into her support

After 16 years as German Chancellor, Angela Merkel will not stand again in the German federal elections. This means that not only Germany but also the EU is losing one of its most experienced politicians. From the sovereign debt crisis to the migration crisis and the current impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Merkel has most of the time managed to maintain her reputation as a crisis manager. Some 10 years after her "first" crisis, the sovereign debt crisis in the EU, it is time to look at her decisions and especially the handling of Greece: Why did the German government initially resist financial support for Greece but eventually (and reluctantly) agreed to it?

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