May 12, 2024
To most, it did not come as a surprise when it was announced in the late evening hours of April 3rd that Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán once again prevailed in the parliamentary elections, winning his fourth consecutive term. His electoral victory will likely embolden Orban to stand his ground vis-a-vis the EU and further transform the country into a quasi-autocracy under his reign.
Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister Orbán is having a hard time balancing his close relationship with Moscow while at the same time supporting EU measures against Russia and the condemnation of Russian aggression. Even though Hungary did not veto the EU’s sanction package on Russia, the country refuses to supply weapons and allow weapons transport through the country. Moreover, the government continues to reiterate that it is important to “keep the peace”, without mentioning the aggressor who started this war: Putin.
The claim that Putin feels threatened by NATO is not only the key argument of political scientist Mearsheimer and it has also been picked up and replicated by Russian propaganda. However, various scholars and experts on the region disagree with this notion of NATO threatening Russia. Instead, some argue, it is democracy that poses a threat to Putin and his regime and that fear of flourishing democracy in Russia’s neighbourhood is part of the explanation for the Russian invasion in 2014 and 2022.
In 2014, John J. Mearsheimer wrote an article in Foreign Affairs called “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault”. He argues that the West bears the majority of the responsibility for the crisis in Ukraine in 2014, because of NATO’s expansion in Russia’s backyard by which Russia felt increasingly threatened, and because of EU enlargement in the same geographical area as well as its support to pro-democracy movements in the region. The same argument is now revived as the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfolds before the world’s eyes. However, this argument misses a crucial point. The West might be responsible for what is happening in Ukraine, but not in the way most people think.
On Wednesday, February 16, 2022, the ECJ finally rejected Hungary’s and Poland’s legal challenge, thereby paving the way for the European Commission to withhold EU funds on the grounds of erosion of the rule of law in member states. The Court’s decision allows the EU to take action against member states violating the rule of law, one of the bloc’s core principles.
Amidst the current pressing crises occupying the EU, another potentially pivotal moment may encounter the block this year. In April 2022, the EU’s problem child, Hungary, will hold parliamentary elections, deciding on their next government and prime minister. Several questions remain: Can the united opposition finally defeat Orbán and his Fidesz party, despite evidence for irregularities in previous elections? And if so, could that actually lead to meaningful reforms?
Despite the threatening likelihood of a global climate crisis, little action has so far been taken by governments. Apart from recurring summits, which only bring forward further protocols, agreements and promises that rarely have any serious enforcement mechanism or consequences if not followed through, radical measures and reforms remain absent. From October 31 until November 14, 2021, world leaders convened in Glasgow for the COP26 summit, aiming to find measures to reduce emissions and prevent the approaching climate crisis in the coming decades.
While Homophobia in Hungary is rising, the Fidesz government actively furthers the stigmatisation and marginalisation of the LGBT+ community. Ahead of the 2022 election, the government introduced another law that increases penalties for pedophiles while at the same time outlawing the “promotion of homosexuality” for those under 18 – thereby censoring sexual identity and conflating pedophilia with homosexuality.
After 11 years under the rule of the Fidesz government, the adoption of new controversial laws is a common practice, and rarely too much attention is paid to their potential long-term consequences. On April 27th, 2021, the Hungarian Parliament approved a new controversial law. With the new legislation, the transfer of vast amounts of state assets, universities, and other public institutions to government-aligned foundations was written into law – likely further tightening Fidesz’ power grab ahead of the 2022 elections.
The forced landing of a Ryanair plane in Minsk on May 23rd should raise multiple questions for the EU and the Western community as a whole. What is the adequate response to such an incident? Are sanctions an appropriate tool to address this type of behaviour? And how can we effectively safeguard values such as human rights and freedom of expression in wider Europe?
