Press "Enter" to skip to content

The New START: Discursive effectiveness but little congruence with what it proposes

The extension of the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) has finally come to a happy ending after the expectations of many have fallen short after failing to reach broad consensuses on START II and III.

The New START was signed on April 8, 2010, by Barack Obama and Dimitri Medvedev, aiming to limit the intercontinental ballistic missiles quantity on land, sea and air. Once again, the United States of America and Russia have finally come to an agreement, extending the ratified agreement for five more years. Otherwise, it would have brought back a scenario that has been non-existent for 50 years, where there is no binding agreement on the two largest nuclear arsenals in the world.

The global effort for nuclear disarmament has been led by the largest nuclear arsenal owners in the world. Although others would be willing to collaborate with the objective, for now, the initiative and the main advances must come from decisions taken from the White House and the Kremlin.

Stay up to Date – Subscribe to our newsletter.

Thus, both parties agreed on having no more than 1,550 deployed warheads. Moreover, they can review compliance with the agreement up to 18 times a year and frequently exchange information on movements. As of February 4, the US State Department has registered a total of 21,473 change notifications.

The European Union received the news with euphoria and Josep Borrell Fontelles, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, highlighted in a Tweet that with the signing of the agreement a very important step had been taken for European and international security, considering that this treaty increases predictability and trust between the US and Russia and puts limits on strategic competition. Essentially, as Borrell expressed it, this agreement fulfils the task of guaranteeing verifiable limits for both parties, which especially in times of tension is of vital importance.

Furthermore, in the recently signed agreement, there was an attempt to include China. However, neither Peking nor Moscow agreed on the contents of the Treaty. Instead, Moscow insisted on a bilateral negotiation between the parties concerned and drew attention to the approximately 500 nuclear warheads held by the United Kingdom and France, suggesting that those should also be part of a new agreement.

In essence, we are talking about nine different countries with nuclear capacity. Even though no one has exact figures and some countries refuse to be transparent, this is more or less the current state according to the SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute): the US and Russia are on the lead with more than 90% of the total capacity, followed by China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. At the beginning of the year, the total number was close to 13,400 warheads, of which 3,750 are deployed and around 2,000 in operational alertness.

As a matter of fact, if we compare the 70,000 warheads from the Cold War that were estimated with today’s modest figure of around 14,000 (even if rounding), it seems that, because of the current amount which is now only one fifth compared to Cold War times, we might assume that the hazard is also only one-fifth of what it was before. However, it is a bit more complex than that, and it is not just about quantity. We must talk also about the weapon’s quality, considering certain advances in the past decades.

When it comes to nuclear weapons, just one single factor can be decisive in a war scene. Let us remember the times of the Cold War, specifically the Cuban Missile Crisis. At the time, with the best technology at hand, it was just about placing the missiles in the right place. The only thing that could prevent a disaster was mutual deterrence.

Nonetheless, today we can simply observe how technology has developed and we could hardly imagine the consequences of what a nuclear war would be like now. And this is where we need to consider the technological advances that occurred parallel to disarmament. Nowadays, we talk about much more efficient weapons (in their capacity of destruction), more selective and precise, reaching a point where the use of mini nuclear weapons on the battlefield is not just an idea, but a reality. The USA and Russia keep a vastly expensive program to replace the old warheads and ballistic systems with ones up to date with current technological standards.

Even though the world’s nuclear armament has been reduced considerably, the ones that remain are more sophisticated and potentially more destructive. 75 years ago, the nuclear weapons dropped over Hiroshima and Nagasaki showed a capacity for destruction never seen before in warfare. Today’s capabilities could vaporize the human race in the blink of an eye, which is why we must insist on pacts that not only work in a discursive way but have some coherence with reality. Therefore, something more reasonable would be to consider the capability of nuclear weapons, and not just the amount thereof.

 

Sources

Arms Control Association, 2018. Arms Control Association. [Online] Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USNuclearModernization [Last Access: 15 February 2021].

Arms Control Association, 2021. U.S. Nuclear Modernization Programs. [Online] Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/NewSTART [Last Access: 15 February 2021].

Borrell, J. (2021) 3 February. Available at: https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1357032170477527042[Last Access: 15 February 2021].

NTI, 2008. The Costs of U.S. Nuclear Weapons. [Online] Available at: https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/costs-us-nuclear-weapons/ [Last Access: 15 February 2021].

Reuters Staff, 2020. U.S. prepared to spend Russia, China ‘into oblivion’ to win nuclear race: U.S. envoy. [Online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-armscontrol/u-s-prepared-to-spend-russia-china-into-oblivion-to-win-nuclear-arms-race-u-s-envoy-idUSKBN22X2LS [Last Access: 15 February 2021].

STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE. World nuclear forces. [Online] Available at: https://www.sipri.org/research/armament-and-disarmament/nuclear-disarmament-arms-control-and-non-proliferation/world-nuclear-forces [Last Access: 15 February 2021].

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE. New START Treaty. [Online] Available at: https://www.state.gov/new-start/ [Last Access: 15 February 2021].

Is it finally time for EU merger control reform?

In recent years, preserving the single market through competition rules has come to the fore due to increasing foreign competition. In the context of merger control, the planned takeover of the French firm Alstom by the German company Siemens has given rise to a debate. The European Commission's prohibition of the merger raised two particular questions this analysis seeks to answer while looking at proposed amendments to the merger rules.

The Spreading Tentacles of Chinese Economic Diplomacy: Ethnic Conflict in Indonesia and Pakistan

In 2014, China’s GDP based on purchasing power parity has overtaken that of the United States. Though the US is still regarded as the world’s major economy, trends are shifting away from the narrative of a post-Cold War hegemony of liberal democracies. In light of such circumstances, this analysis assesses how Chinese development finance and investment in the Global South is shaping both, current geopolitics and the internal structure of Pakistan and Indonesia.

Who does the ‘Women’s Strike’ actually fight for?

On the 22nd October 2020 the Polish constitutional court ruled that the act of aborting a foetus with serious birth defects is unconstitutional. Protests, resembling ones from 2016 broke out all over the country sparking international recognition and support, but also strong criticism from opposition groups such as pro-life or catholic organisations. Nevertheless the 2020 'Women's Strike' adresses issues that go beyond the abortion ban and thus it should be recognized for what it actually stands for, an attempt to safeguard the democracy ad rights of an entire nation.

Be First to Comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *