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Weekly News Briefing #1

Ukraine 

As we entered the eighth week of the Russian war on Ukraine, Russia, after it failed to capture Kyiv and hence withdrew from its outskirts, started its awaited offensive in the eastern region of Ukraine, Donbas. According to a Russian general, the aim is to seize all of southern and eastern Ukraine. 

On Tuesday, a Ukrainian commander from Mariupol, the southern-eastern port city still under siege, released a video stating that they will not lay down their weapons and surrender. However, he also said they were outnumbered by Russian forces and did not know how long they could hold the city. He also called for humanitarian corridors to evacuate women and children who are still sheltering in the city that became notorious for the news of the population facing a humanitarian crisis, being cut off from water and electricity due to the Russian siege. 

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Finland 

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland, which shares a 1,340 km long border with the Russian Federation, is now seriously considering giving up its long-standing tradition of neutrality in return for a NATO membership. 

As of April 2022, more than 60% of its population are in favour of joining the military alliance, despite Russian threats about “serious political and military consequences”, also including “retaliatory measures”, in case Finland were to join NATO.

Together with Finland, also neutral Sweden contemplates joining the military alliance and is now facing the same threats from Russia. 

France

After the first round of the French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and his opponent, populist far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, came forward as finalists. The second round will be held on April 24, 2022.
Want to know more about the first round of France’s presidential election? See Politico’s five takeaways here.

On Wednesday, April 20th, Le Pen and Macron had a final televised debate ahead of Sunday’s election. During the discussion, Macron accused Le Pen of being in the pocket of Russia, alluding to her close relationship with Putin.

Although polling suggests a second presidential term for Macron, the result is expected to be closer than five years ago: Yet, while a Le Pen success in the elections is unlikely, it is still not impossible. In the (unlikely) event of a Le Pen victory, her presidency would be another stress test for the European Union, among other stressors, such as the war in Ukraine, the rule of law breaches of Hungary’s newly re-elected prime minister Viktor Orbán and his various quarrels with Brussels. 

As election day comes around, all signs point toward a Macron victory. He would be the first president in decades to win a second consecutive term.

In other news  

Shanghai Lockdown: In an effort to stop another wave of Covid, Chinese authorities impose extreme measures on the population in Shanghai.

Turkey launched a new offensive against Kurdish fighters of the PKK in Iraq on Monday.

On Wednesday, Russia test-launched a new intercontinental missile, which the West perceived as a warning. 

 

That’s it for this week! Thank you for reading, and we hope you enjoyed this newsletter. 

The EU-Turkey Statement: Background, recent developments and its impact on EU-Turkey relations

In 2015, the EU negotiated a controversial deal with one of its neighbours and "partner", Turkey, to curb migration from the Middle East to Europe. Regrettably, the deal has ever since caused more concerns than relief due to the unreliable nature of the EU's partner country. As a result, it remains questionable whether the deal will hold at all and what the repercussion on the EU's reputation as a global actor will be in the long term.

How can the Five Eyes bolster its security resilience?

Forged under the pressure of the Second World War, the Five Eyes has linked together the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, Canada and New Zealand in unprecedented cooperation on intelligence sharing. The current international security backdrop, however, remains particularly salient in terms of great-power competition from authoritarian powers seeking to challenge the US-led liberal international order. For the Five Eyes to strengthen its security resilience, enhanced intelligence cooperation and alliance expansion will be vital to effectively thwart the malign behaviour of rogue powers on the international stage.

What does the US withdrawal from Afghanistan mean for NATO?

By pulling out of Afghanistan, Joe Biden has put an end to 20 years of U.S. troop involvement in Afghanistan and thus to Washington's "forever war" in the mountainous, landlocked country. This strategic decision leaves the democratically elected government in Kabul struggling to hold on to power. The withdrawal of US and NATO troops is therefore likely to fuel an assortment of security and geostrategic consequences contrary to Euro-Atlantic interests.

The challenges of Development-Induced Displacement in Poland

The previous year 2020 was a year of stagnation for many industries worldwide, including the construction industry and thus, Poland was no exception. As the New Year is starting and medical developments are aiding the society in battling the coronavirus, the Polish construction sector seeks to recover through new investments, aided by the EU 2021-2017 Budget. While the establishment of new projects brings many new themes and hopes, it also reawakens old issues and concerns, one of them being the displacement of people.

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